It’s funny how things change after the second or third May weekend in Rhode island. Somehow, the bloom really comes off the rose and the general seasonal zeitgeist is that warbler migration is over, with nothing to look forward to. I go back to sleeping in and not chasing warblers and other birders stop hitting migrant traps with the same panache they had been. This coming last May weekend, birders will be out scouting late arrivals that will probably have been on breeding territory for 3-4 days, like Grasshopper Sparrow and Acadian Flycatcher. I’ll be shorebirding, thank you very much.

Sadly, I think key migrants are being missed, like Mourning Warbler, Alder Flycatcher, and Clay-colored Sparrow (and if we were ever lucky Connecticut Warbler). These are tough birds and they’re not associated with the same warbler diversity or density that the earlier peak is associated with. At the same time, shorebirds are at their spring peak on the east coast. But all the intensity of those teen days of May can’t hold up forever, at some point we all need to breathe, spend time with our families, and just let the flame simmer a little bit.

Winds aloft are pretty light, with a pattern of southerly winds to our east and west, so I don’t expect any major overshooting activity, nor any birds from parts west. No rain, but some fog, is expected, so coastal areas may find some disoriented birds, but inland areas should have clear sailing. Tomorrow should be a good day at all the classic migrant traps and with a good scattering of birds across the region.

The strong southwest can end up blowing birds offshore and then they struggle back to shore in the morning, generating small concentrations at eastern and northeastern facing coastal sites. Whether this happens or not will depend on what the RADAR looks like in the morning. I’ll try to update before I hit the field in the morning. Good birding tomorrow! It will be different than today.

There’s a little bit of rain in the way over PA, MD, and DE tonight, but we should still see some new birds in the morning. Tomorrow night is going to be really good, as a big alley of southwest winds lines up from the deep south into New England. I’m already thinking that Thursday morning will be a key morning to be out there.

Tomorrow will have a new batch of birds, as the densities to the south of us are very, very high, and I would highly advise checking your classic migrant traps for overshoots expected at this time of year, such as Blue Grosbeak, Kentucky Warbler, because of the strong SW winds that are going to continue overnight.

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So far tonight, the RADAR shows the highest densities I’ve seen anywhere on the east coast this season. A lot of birds are coming, but we have another major player, a massive cold front. These situations can be tricky to forecast, because migrant concentration is dependent on how fast the front is moving and what sort of direction it’s coming from. When the front comes from the same direction as the birds are moving, the birds often put down and disperse before the winds and rain arrive. That is somewhat the case tonight, as birds are coming out of the SW and moving towards the NE. The front is moving similarly.

Whatever happens in terms of bird/rain interaction in the next six hours, there are going to be very wet field conditions tomorrow. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go birding tomorrow, as wet conditions at this time of year can result in all sorts of migrant fallout, including shorebirds. I’m reticent to suggest that there may be fallout as there was today, but it is May 11th and there are some remarkable densities of birds moving ahead of this front. I think that even if the birds are not abruptly grounded by weather conditions aloft overnight, they will collect into traditional spring migrant traps tomorrow.

Considering the uncertainty tonight, I’ll try to post an update after looking at the RADAR in the morning, before I hit the field.

Go birding. There are birds coming, a lot of them (just look at Delaware). There’s some rain to the north, a lot of fog, and some west winds. It’s May 10th. Go birding. Go birding.